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Texas Alcohol Index - December 2009

Published: 29 January 2010

Austin, TX: Virtue Group, a restaurant research company, announced today the release of the December TAI, the Texas Alcohol Index. The index is an aid to track the vitality and performance of the on-premise alcoholic beverage market in Texas. The index is released monthly, trailing two months. The TAI is intended to aid in assessing the vitality of the on-premise alcohol market in Texas and the entire full-service restaurant market as a whole.

Virtue Group Texas Alcohol Index: TAI

TAI December 2009: 189.33

TAI December 2008: 195.03

Percentage change from December 08: -2.92%
Inflation Rate for December 2008 - December 2009*: 2.72%

* Estimated inflation based on the change in the CPI-U for the period.

What is the TAI?

Monthly economic indicator for on-premise mixed beverage sales in the state of Texas. Monitors monthly gross alcohol sales relative to a base period: January 2000. Tracks growth or decline in the mixed beverage market sales from previous months and from the same month last year.

Summary

2009 ended with a weak December. Sales were down 3% in December from last year. Additionally, inflation has set into the marketplace and was near 3% during the period. When considering for inflation the month's performance is even more lack luster and December numbers were the weakest December numbers in the past 3 years.

However, this should not come be a large surprise as December, which has historically been the strongest month in terms of gross on-premise sales for the state of Texas, has had a high reliance on the sale of alcoholic beverages in upscale establishments. These establishments have suffered the highest decline in traffic and sales during the past year.

A noteworthy trend that is developing however, is that the seasonality of consumption seems to be altering state wide due to new behaviors of consumers, perhaps spurred in-part by the economic downturn of the past year. March and May now seem to be poised as the months of the largest alcoholic on-premise consumption and performance in establishments this month and in May will indicate if this is a new long standing trend and alteration to the on-premise landscape in the state. December will remain an important month, in particular in terms of Wine sales and for sales in Upscale restaurants, but its significance will most likely wane in the coming years from the position it once held.

2009 finished with on-premise alcoholic beverage sales down by 1.4% for the year verse 2008; on-premise Beer grew 1.2% , Wine declined 5.9%, and Liquor declined 1.9% during the period.